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OddsShift · Sep 29, 2026

Corbin Burnes Avoids Surgery; Diamondbacks Hopeful Star Pitcher Can Return

Corbin Burnes' tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks has been defined by misfortune rather than dominance. The right-hander signed a seven-year, $210 million deal before the 2025 season with the expectation he would anchor the rotation for years to come. Instead, his first campaign was derailed when he underwent Tommy John surgery in June, limiting him to just 11 starts and 64⅓ innings. The injury was devastating not only for his individual development but for Arizona's rotation depth during a season when the team needed all hands on deck.

A concerning pattern. When Burnes returned for 2026, hope was high that he could contribute meaningfully. Those hopes dimmed when he suffered a teres major injury—a less common but still serious shoulder issue—that threatened to compound the damage from his previous surgery and raise questions about his durability going forward.

A glimmer of good news. The recent medical determination that Burnes will not need shoulder surgery is significant. It suggests the teres major injury, while painful, may heal through conservative treatment and rehabilitation. This keeps alive the possibility that he can return to full health without another surgical procedure, though the timeline and extent of his availability remain unclear.

Impact on Arizona's rotation. For the Diamondbacks, this development is crucial. A $210 million investment sitting on the shelf helps no one. If Burnes can return to even 70-80 percent of his pre-injury form, it dramatically improves Arizona's pitching picture heading into next season. From a betting perspective, the Diamondbacks' rotation quality and overall win total could be significantly undervalued if Burnes is expected back, since many projections may have already written him off.

Source: original report ↗

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