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OddsShift · Oct 25, 2026

Lopez Progressing Ahead of Schedule in Elbow Recovery

Pablo Lopez had his right elbow operated on in February, but avoided the lengthy rehab timeline that comes with traditional Tommy John surgery. Instead, the Twins' starter underwent a less invasive procedure designed to address his specific issue while preserving his arm strength and shortening his recovery window. That strategic approach now appears to be paying dividends as he approaches the 2025 season.

The pitcher has already resumed playing catch in August, marking a significant milestone in his comeback. By reaching that point, Lopez demonstrated he's further along the recovery timeline than might have been expected for a procedure of this nature. The Twins are targeting his availability for Spring Training, which would open the door to an Opening Day roster spot if all continues to progress smoothly over the coming weeks.

The rotation implications are substantial. The Twins' starting staff depth hinges partly on Lopez's readiness. A healthy Lopez at full strength gives Minnesota a legitimate front-line starter entering a competitive AL Central race. His presence changes how the team approaches trades, free agency, and workload management for other arms on the roster.

From a betting lens, Lopez's status will influence Twins win totals and playoff odds. A full season of contributions from him is materially different than assuming he'll miss time or pitch fewer innings than expected. Sportsbooks will recalibrate their projections once there's more clarity on his Spring Training performance and his realistic innings ceiling for the year.

Source: original report ↗

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