Why bullpens decide more games than you think

Everyone watches the starting pitcher. Sharp bettors watch the bullpen.

As the season wears into summer, bullpen fatigue becomes one of the most underrated factors in baseball. A team that played a 12-inning game last night, or burned three relievers two days running, is vulnerable late — no matter who starts.

Look for teams whose high-leverage arms have been overused, and for games where a starter is on a tight pitch count. Those are the spots where a close game tips in the late innings. The first five innings get the attention; the last four decide the money.